Thursday, 11 August 2011

Short Term Buy Signal?

The hourly chart below shows the NQ's violating the important 3 Day Pivot Range (Pink Overlay) as noted by the blue arrow as the stocks have re-entered the Weekly Channel structure identified below by the blue horizontal line. What does all this mean for now? If the stocks can hold by tomorrow's(Friday) close above the 3 Day Rolling Pivot Range, this would be the first short term 'buy' signal generated in 2 weeks. This would imply taking a position on the long side with expectation to 2280 level, which is marked by the 'brown' horizontal line below, indicating the important monthly lower boundary level that has provided critical support for this market since Feb.
















We have the same set-up developing in the ES contract below as the S&P's are violating the 3 Day Pivot Structure.

 Further to this shorter-term supportive stance in stocks is the internal action over the last 3 days as per the 15min intraday chart below of the NQ contract. This shows trading activity of Aug 9, 10, and 11th (today). The internal activity in this market has also been supportive from the long despite the volatility and the deeply negative close yesterday. Aug 9th put in an early buy signal and followed by a failed sell signal late in the day, which is reflective following the FED speak volatility. Aug 10 puts in a mid-day failed sell signal at 2080 level, followed by a rally into the top of the 1 Day pivot, but then a big roll-over late in the day to produce a sell signal. Today, we can see the market puts in a buy signal by 10:30 and has been trending higher since. This is good action coming off of yesterdays late sell signal. We have to keep an eye on Friday's closing and intraday activity to determine whether a long 'core' position is warranted.














All the same logic applies to the Major US Indices.

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